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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.