Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.