From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”