Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The typical count of per-day killings each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent administrative figures. However, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security researchers warned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it could obscure days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.